Things That Keep Me Up At Night

Two things combine today to make me a little uneasy.

First, I have always believed that the next world-shaking event will have its roots in the Middle East. The tensions between Israel and the Arabs is ancient, deep, and very, very bitter. They lurk, evil and silent, beneath the surface of everything that takes place there. The most recent friction arises from Iran's efforts to process nuclear 'fuel' for their reactors.

While the Israelis are open to reason, at least to some extent, there is no reasoning when it comes to the Arabs perspective on the Jews. For example:

Textbooks used in Saudi Arabia’s schools (and distributed throughout the Muslim world) contain virulent forms of anti-Christian and anti-Jewish bigotry that continue to fuel intolerance and violence around the globe...

Christians are referred to as “swine” and Jews as “apes,” while being blamed for much of the world’s ills.

• From a Grade 8 text: “The Apes are the people of the Sabbath, the Jews; the Swine are the infidels of the communion of Jesus, the Christians.”

• Suggested lesson for Grade 8 class: As an exercise, students can spend time listing “Jews’ condemnable qualities.”

Second, one commentator that I read with great interest and respect is Charles Krauthammer. I've generally found him to be spot-on with his insight and analysis.

That's why I am troubled by his latest column, in which he draws a disturbing parallel between the 1967 Arab-Israeli war (the so-called Six-Day War) and the current threat posed by Iran's nuclear program.

In May 1967, in brazen violation of previous truce agreements, Egypt ordered U.N. peacekeepers out of the Sinai, marched 120,000 troops to the Israeli border, blockaded the Straits of Tiran (Israel’s southern outlet to the world’s oceans), abruptly signed a military pact with Jordan and, together with Syria, pledged war for the final destruction of Israel.

May ’67 was Israel’s most fearful, desperate month. The country was surrounded and alone. Previous great-power guarantees proved worthless. A plan to test the blockade with a Western flotilla failed for lack of participants. Time was running out. Forced into mass mobilization in order to protect against invasion — and with a military consisting overwhelmingly of civilian reservists — life ground to a halt. The country was dying.

On June 5, Israel launched a preemptive strike on the Egyptian air force, then proceeded to lightning victories on three fronts. The Six-Day War is legend, but less remembered is that, four days earlier, the nationalist opposition (Mena­chem Begin’s Likud precursor) was for the first time ever brought into the government, creating an emergency national-unity coalition.

Everyone understood why. You do not undertake a supremely risky preemptive war without the full participation of a broad coalition representing a national consensus.

Forty-five years later, in the middle of the night of May 7-8, 2012, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu shocked his country by bringing the main opposition party, Kadima, into a national unity government. Shocking because just hours earlier, the Knesset was expediting a bill to call early elections in September.

Why did the high-flying Netanyahu call off elections he was sure to win?

Because for Israelis today, it is May ’67. The dread is not quite as acute: The mood is not despair, just foreboding. Time is running out, but not quite as fast. War is not four days away, but it looms. Israelis today face the greatest threat to their existence — nuclear weapons in the hands of apocalyptic mullahs publicly pledged to Israel’s annihilation — since May ’67. The world is again telling Israelis to do nothing as it looks for a way out. But if such a way is not found — as in ’67 — Israelis know that they will once again have to defend themselves, by themselves.

Such a fateful decision demands a national consensus. By creating the largest coalition in nearly three decades, Netanyahu is establishing the political premise for a preemptive strike, should it come to that. The new government commands an astonishing 94 Knesset seats out of 120, described by one Israeli columnist as a “hundred tons of solid concrete.”

So much for the recent media hype about some great domestic resistance to Netanyahu’s hard line on Iran ... “Everyone is saying the same thing,” explained one Knesset member, “though there may be a difference of tone.”

... The wall-to-wall coalition demonstrates Israel’s political readiness to attack, if necessary. (Its military readiness is not in doubt.)

Those counseling Israeli submission, resignation or just endless patience can no longer dismiss Israel’s tough stance as the work of irredeemable right-wingers. Not with a government now representing 78 percent of the country.

Netanyahu forfeited September elections that would have given him four more years in power. He chose instead to form a national coalition that guarantees 18 months of stability — 18 months during which, if the world does not act (whether by diplomacy or otherwise) to stop Iran, Israel will.

And it will not be the work of one man, one party or one ideological faction. As in 1967, it will be the work of a nation.

Left unsaid in Krauthammer's column is another reason for Netanyahu's actions. It's no secret that he and obama do not get along, or that obama is no friend to Israel. Netanyahu has bought 18 months of unity while he waits -- and hopes and prays -- for Romney to defeat obama this Novemeber. If Romney wins, Israel remains on hold. If obama wins, expect Israel to follow the advice of Marc Antony in Julius Caesar: "Cry "Havoc!" and let slip the dogs of war."

We would do well to remember, however, the remainder of that quote: "that this foul deed shall smell above the earth with carrion men, groaning for burial."

I don't pretend to be able to predict the consequences of an Israeli attack on Iran, but I doubt that they'll be good. Let us hope that it never comes to pass.