Guns And Votes

Brownells is a third-generation supplier of firearms tools, parts, and service. They are located smack dab in the middle of flyover country - Des Moines, Iowa. But, like many of the people between the coasts that are mocked by the cultural elite in New York and California, they posses an abundance of ingenuity and common sense.

Brownells publishes a monthly newsletter that discusses trends and events in the firearms industry, and occasionally ventures into political commentary as well. The April newsletter makes some particularly salient points.

First, this year is the most successful start of a year for the industry, ever. From all accords, it beats the 2008 build-up to Obama’s election. Frankly, we believe the possibility of a second Obama term is driving a large portion of this bump; however, we have observed the largest entrance of new shooters through the conceal carry market we have ever seen. So this increase is really much more than a political bubble, it is what we are calling a “conceal carry surge”.

This surge is driven in part by the success of the NRA and other pro-firearms organizations in getting concealed-carry legislation passed in many states. The affirmation by the Supreme Court that the Second Amendment is an individual right (District of Columbia v. Heller, 2008) also plays a key role.

There are some very significant nuances of this – some pretty far reaching. For instance, people are realizing with the ever-tightening restrictions of law enforcement funding, they are even more responsible for protecting themselves and their families.

This is supported not just by skyrocketing sales, but by jumps in both first-time gun owners and large enrollment increases for concealed-carry and self-defense classes.

Also, note the stock prices of the publicly-traded firearm companies are up significantly. Smith and Wesson has surged 83.5% since January, and Ruger stock has increased 60%.

Firearms companies as investment opportunities - at least obama has stimulated that sector of the economy.

One of the really big happenings in our industry right now is that the ammo for the very popular calibers − .223, .40, 9mm, .38 and .380 – is becoming more and more scarce. Lead times from the factories are extending out to 3rd and 4th quarter, even into 1st quarter 2013, and the “pipeline” from the factory to the retail store is drying up. What this means is every person who is interested in having these calibers to shoot over the summer appears to be buying as much as possible right now, when they can find it, for fear it will not be available or prices will increase to the point of being ludicrous. Our guys who attended the recent Tulsa Gun Show told us pallets of .223 ammo were disappearing within a day. This bump looks like it will be just like, if not greater than, the 2008 ammunition bump. We also get reports that it is very hard to have AR-15 rifles in stock and the smaller conceal carry firearms are moving in huge volumes this first quarter. We expect that pattern to continue throughout the summer if not all the way to the end of the year.

If you've bought ammo lately you've probably noticed both the scarcity and the price. I can still usually get the ammo I want, but the price has definitely gotten my attention.

The second take-away from the NRA Show and one that is more political in nature than the industry performance is how close the election is going to be this year between President Obama and Governor Romney. There will not be a clear front-runner in the presidential race; it is going to be right down to the very last state ... It is going to come down to voter turnout this year and the candidate who turns out the most voters will win – as it always has been. What we find disturbing is what appears to be a trend of significant numbers of pro-gun citizens who do not vote. We don't know why and we don't understand it.

I don't get it either, but this is definitely not the year to sit out the election. The other side is going to vote early and often, and enlist the aid of illegal immigrants and dead people ("When I die, bury me in Chicago, because I want to remain politically active"). The best way to counter that is to not only vote yourself, but to get friends and family registered and motivated to vote as well.

Many of the past presidential and local political races have been determined by 1 -2% of the voting population. Now more than any other time in history, a single vote can have a larger impact in determining the winner of these races on Election Day, Tuesday, November 6, 2012.

A couple of key points there. First is the razor-thin margins of recent elections - not just national, but state and local. Every vote literally counts. Second is the critical nature of state and local races. Remember 2010, when conservatives lead the republican surge that took back the House. If conservatives can maintain their clout in the House, and maybe even influence a few Senate races, that will accomplish a couple of things. If obama wins it will provide a more meaningful counterweight to his 'rule by executive fiat and regulatory mandate' tyranny. If Romney wins, a sizable conservative presence in congress will serve as a constant reminder of who is responsible for getting him elected. It will help nudge him right of center, which is where he needs to be.

I get that Romney doesn't excite many conservatives. But the alternative is unthinkable. If we elect enough conservatives at the state and local levels then we'll start to turn this ship around, get the train back on the tracks, and hit the road towards recovery.

I realize that's a terribly mixed metaphor, but you get the idea, right...?