Happy Tax Day!

As hillary and other liberals rail against so-called income inequality, keep this in mind. The federal income tax system is very progressive; that is, the more you make, the higher your tax rate becomes. This results in higher income groups paying disproportionately higher shares of the total income taxes collected.

Top 20% of Earners Pay 84% of Income Tax - And the Bottom 20% Gets Paid by Uncle Sam.

(Original article in the WSJ - synopsis and charts provided by AEI.)

As the two charts below show:

1. The top 20% of Americans earn about half of all income (51.3%) and pay almost all income taxes (84%) (see Chart 1).  That top fifth is the only quintile whose tax share exceeds its income share – all bottom four quintiles have a lower tax burden as a share of the total taxes paid than their income as a share of the total. For example, the second highest quintile (with incomes of $79,500 to $134,300) earns 20% of US total income as a group, but shoulders only 13.4% of the total US income tax burden.

2. Both of the bottom two quintiles pay negative income taxes, and are therefore net tax recipients (see Chart 1). The 130 million Americans who represent the bottom 40% “get paid by Uncle Sam” as the WSJ says, or more accurately they “get paid by the top 60%” since Uncle Sam has no money of his own... Uncle Sam is not reaching into his own pockets to pay the bottom 40%, he’s reaching into your pockets if you make more than $47,000, the threshold income level to be in the top 60%. 

Chart 1

3. As the WSJ points out, the top 1% of Americans (about 3.2 million people) earn about 17% of total US income, but pay almost as much in taxes (about 46% of the total) as the 322 million people in the bottom 99% (they pay 54% of taxes while earning 83% of US total income) (see Chart 2). Similarly, the top 5% (about 16 million Americans) earn about 29% of total income but pay almost two-thirds (64%) of income taxes paid, while the 309 million Americans in the bottom 95% pay only 36% of total income taxes paid but earn roughly 83% of US total income (see Chart 2).

Chart 2

As if that's not bad enough, the tax code is so complicated that even the IRS can't figure it out.

...if you go to the US Government Printing Office ( www.gpo.gov ), you can order a complete set of Title 26 of the US Code of Federal Regulations (that's the part written by the IRS), all twenty volumes of it, at the bargain price of $974, shipping included.

According to the US Government Printing Office, it's 13,458 pages in total. The full text of Title 26 of the United States Code (the part written by Congress--available for an additional $179) is a mere 3,387 printed pages, bringing the adjusted gross page count to 16,845.

 There you have it. Almost 17,000 pages of rules and regulations, resulting in a convoluted mess that confuses and frustrates taxpayers. So what's the solution? It's simple.

The Simple Tax replaces the current Federal income tax system by first transitioning over four years to a flat rate personal income tax with no corporate tax and, after at least one more year, switches to a flat rate consumption tax on all retail products and services after repealing the 16th Amendment. The Simple Tax is based upon seven foundational principles.

THE SEVEN principles of THE SIMPLE TAX

1) An examination of the Federal personal income tax. Article I Section 9 of the U. S. Constitution says that all direct taxes, including income taxes, must be apportioned among the states based on population. Federal personal income tax laws passed in 1861 and 1894 were both ruled unconstitutional by the Supreme Court because they failed the apportionment requirement. The 16th Amendment, ratified in 1913, simply states that income taxes do not need to be apportioned among the states. There is no language in the 16th Amendment, or anywhere else in the Constitution, that gives the Federal government the power to tax us as individuals at different rates. In fact, the 14th Amendment clearly states that all citizens will receive equal protection under the law. This leads us to the first Simple Tax principle – The Constitution requires that everyone be charged the same Federal personal income tax rate.

2) An examination of the Federal corporate income tax. At 35%, it is the second highest rate in the world and, combined with the cost of complying with the tax code, is included in the price of everything we buy. In fact, on an average, 22% of the cost of every product and service in the United States is the embedded cost of the corporate tax. While it is true that 47% of Americans do not pay any Federal personal income tax, it is also true that everyone from billionaires to the poorest of the poor already pay a 22% tax on their consumption. This leads us to the second Simple Tax principle – Corporations do not pay taxes, but their customers do.

3) An examination of the cost of complying with the Federal tax code. Renowned economist Arthur Laffer estimates that for every dollar collected by the Federal government, the cost of compliance is 30 cents, and that individuals and businesses spend over 6 billion hours per year on tax compliance, bringing the total cost of compliance to a staggering $431.1 billion per year. These compliance costs stifle economic and job growth and, like the corporate tax, are paid by everyone in the form of higher prices. This leads us to the third Simple Tax principle – All Americans will benefit from reducing tax compliance costs.

4) Consideration of changing the tax system too quickly. Including lawyers, accountants, clerks, and IRS employees, millions of people and businesses make a living from the current tax system. Also, including mortgages, retirement planning, investments, and staffing, millions of individuals and companies have made decisions based on the current tax system. This leads us to the fourth Simple Tax principle – Individuals and companies need time to prepare for a new tax system.

5)  Considering the relative benefits of a flat rate retail consumption tax. It is estimated that a flat rate retail consumption tax would slash compliance costs by about 95%. Also, individuals would no longer need to fill out or submit tax forms, or be audited. Finally, the underground economy, which includes tax cheats, illegal aliens, and drug dealers, is estimated to be at least 10% of GDP, and a flat rate retail consumption tax will collect taxes from these people while an income tax does not. This leads us to the fifth Simple Tax principle – A flat rate retail consumption tax is the simplest, least expensive, least intrusive and broadest based method of taxation.

6) We acknowledge that each method of taxation requires a collection and audit process that incurs cost. Also, the history of taxation in the United States, including income, Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, shows that as long as a method of taxing has existed, Congress has eventually increased both the scope and the rate. Therefore, we should never have both a Federal income and consumption tax at the same time. This leads us to the sixth Simple Tax principle – We need to repeal the 16th Amendment before we institute a Federal consumption tax.

7) We accept that it does not matter what we do to the tax system if we continue to spend and borrow more than we receive in taxes. This leads us to the seventh Simple Tax principle – Any future flat tax rate, whether on income or consumption, will be based on spending, economic growth, and on whether we want a balanced budget or debt reduction.

With these seven principles in mind, The Simple Tax rate could be 10% of personal income or 9% of personal retail consumption. Once everyone is paying the same tax rate there is a built in incentive to reduce Federal spending to Constitutional limits, which will lead to further rate cuts or faster debt reduction, or both.

In summary, The Simple Tax will bring all Americans together with a common tax plan with a realistic implementation strategy that follows the Constitution and results in economic and job growth.

We should live so long...

IRS Letter

I have to pay my taxes today. Here's the letter I'm sending them.

Dear Internal Revenue Service:

Enclosed you will find my 2008 tax return showing that I owe $3,407.00 in taxes.

Please note the attached article from the USA Today newspaper, dated 12 November, wherein you will see the Pentagon (Department of Defense) is paying $171.50 per hammer and NASA has paid $600.00 per toilet seat.

I am enclosing four (4) toilet seats (valued @ $2,400) and six (6) hammers valued @ $1,029), which I secured at Home Depot, bringing my total remittance to $3,429.00.

Please apply the overpayment of $22.00 to the 'Presidential Election Fund,' as noted on my return.

You can do this inexpensively by sending them one (1) 1.5' Phillips Head screw (see aforementioned article from USA Today newspaper detailing how H.U.D. pays $22.00 each for 1.5' Phillips Head Screws).

One screw is enclosed for your convenience.

It has been a pleasure to pay my tax bill this year, and I look forward to paying it again next year.

Sincerely,

A Satisfied Taxpayer

You Can't Make This Stuff Up

Remind me again why the U.S. belongs to this farce of an organization.

UN Gives Iran Leadership Post in Agency for 'Gender Equality and Empowerment of Women'

With little fanfare, a U.N. body has given Iran seats on several entities, including one dealing with women’s empowerment, another with children, a third with narcotics and a fourth with crime prevention and criminal justice.

From January 1 next year, Iran will be a member of the executive board of the U.N. Entity for Gender Equality and the Empowerment of Women (U.N. Women), the executive board of the U.N. Children’s Fund (UNICEF), the Commission on Crime Prevention and Criminal Justice, and Commission on Narcotic Drugs.

In Iran, women are legally barred from holding some government positions, there are no laws against domestic violence, and adultery is punishable by stoning...

Words fail me.

FOD 2015.04.13

Cleaning out my file of obama cartoons to make room for ones of hillary...


I meant to post this one on April 1st, but as usual my intentions were sabotaged by my actions.

Sunday Funnies 2015.04.12

In what has to be the worst-kept secret of our times, Hillary Clinton is expected to announce today that she is running for the presidency.

God help us all...

Q. What do you get when you cross a crooked politician with a crooked lawyer?
A. Chelsea Clinton

Q: Did you here about Kentucky Fried Chicken's Hillary Combo meal?
A: Two small breasts, two large thighs and two left wings.

Q: What's the difference between Hillary Clinton and a pit bull?
A: The pit bull doesn't carry a briefcase.

The hottest new political bumper sticker says "RUN HILLARY RUN."
Democrats put them on the rear bumper... Republicans on the front bumper.

Bill Clinton, Hillary Clinton, and George Bush are all killed in a terrible plane crash. They find themselves in Heaven, standing before God.

"Who are you?" asks the Lord?

"I'm George Bush," says George.

"Ah, George, my son. Come and sit here, on my right side," says God.

"And who are you?" God asks.

"I'm Bill Clinton," says Bill.

"Ah, Bill, my son. Come and sit here, on my left side," says God.

"And who are you?" God asks for the third time.

"I'm Hillary Clinton, and I think you're in my chair."

In addition to brain-dead liberals, there's one other group of people that's really excited about the prospect of Hillary running for office - late night comedians.

"The RNC released its first presidential debate schedule, which includes at least nine debates in different states across the country. As opposed to the Democratic debates, which will just be Hillary staring at her opponents until they burst into flames." –Jimmy Fallon

"Chelsea Clinton gave birth to a daughter named Charlotte this weekend. Hillary Clinton was really excited until she remembered that you have to be 18 to vote." –Seth Meyers

"In an interview she said that she and her husband were dead broke when they left the White House. Hillary said things were so bad, the two of them needed to share a bedroom." –Conan O'Brien

"Bill Clinton was being interviewed recently, and he said that despite all the speculation, Hillary hasn't said anything to him about running for president in 2016. Though in fairness, she hasn't said anything to him since 1998." –Jimmy Fallon

Flaming Trousers

I have a friend who is a staunch conservative/libertarian. She went to see Bill Clinton speak as part of an industry-sponsored conference. I was somewhat taken aback when she posted the following.

I enjoyed hearing Bill Clinton speak a lot more than I thought I would... After listening to Bill speak, I believe that, no matter his faults, he does love his country and has faith that our problems can be solved if people will work together - traits that our current president is lacking.

No argument about the Clinton vs. obama  perspective. And I don't mean to question her insight. After all, she was there and I wasn't. Furthermore, there is no doubt that Bill Clinton is a captivating and persuasive speaker. But I found it interesting that the day after Slick Willie's speech this article was published.

Liars in High Places

You have to admire someone who can look you squarely in the eye, wag his index finger at you, and vociferously deny what is in fact the truth. But President Clinton may not have believed that he had actually lied. You see, “it depends on what the meaning of [sexual relations] is.” By Clinton’s lights, receiving oral sex isn’t sex. Who knew?

More than anyone else, it was Clinton who drove the Lewinsky scandal. Clinton’s lies and language games were what plunged the nation and the federal government into his sleazy swamp. And it was all unnecessary, because if his objective was to hang onto his job, Clinton didn’t need to lie. Indeed, he may have avoided impeachment altogether had he come out in the beginning and admitted to being the recipient of certain unsought-for attentions. Had he admitted upfront to a moment of weakness, the existence of a stained blue dress would have been assumed; it wouldn’t have had any power to damage. But no, Bubba had to lie.

And having lied, Clinton guaranteed his impeachment, as perjury in a grand jury is a felony, a high crime and therefore impeachable. The fellatio with an underling off the oval office was tawdry. But perjury, that’s big. Senators who might overlook the sex (or whatever you want to call it) weren’t going to overlook perjury...

But all that lying didn’t hurt Clinton too much with the public. And now he’s an elder “statesman,” the Big Dog; he’s Elvis, and all is forgiven...

For the political class, lying to the public is no big deal, as they’re rarely held accountable... The media seems to be trying to condition the American people into accepting lying by politicians in high places. (emphasis added)

It’s instructive to watch the Truth Revolt video of Clinton’s “that woman” press conference as it goes long enough to include the hearty standing ovation he was given by the nation’s journalists. The media can’t resist a bravura performance by a master liar.

During the Anthony Weiner scandal, MSNBC host Lawrence O’Donnell expressed incredulity that an elected official would have to resign because of lying. Given his position on lying, why believe O’Donnell about anything?

As for who is the more accomplished liar, Clinton or Obama, I’d have to give the gold medal to Obama. If you Google “Obama lies” with quotation marks, you’ll get thousands of hits, including Obama Lies. Obama even won PolitiFact’s 2013 Lie of the Year. Of course, neither one of them has any shame, but lying seems to come more naturally to Obama. Lying is Obama’s default position, his first refuge; it’s his go-to response: Don’t look here, there’s “not even a smidgeon of corruption”.

The problem for serial liars is that eventually they run out of an essential capital -- credibility. Once the liar’s credibility is used up, he’s done. The question for those who still support Barack Hussein Obama is why do they believe anything he says? If he lied about that, he’ll lie about this. Is it rational to believe Obama when he says Iran will not get nukes?

Recently, CNN’s Dana Bash asked Sen. Harry Reid about his 2012 lie concerning GOP candidate Mitt Romney. On the Senate floor, Reid had said: “Let him prove that he has paid taxes, because he hasn't.” Ms. Bash asked Reid if he had any regrets because “some people have even called it McCarthyite.” Reid answered: “Romney didn’t win, did he?”

Typical lying politician douche-bag. The truth or nothing else matters as long as your side wins.

I was raised to believe there is nothing lower than a liar. I believe that to this day. That's why I have nothing but contempt for lying politicians and their media enablers.

Friday Follies Happy Hour 2015.04.10

More Texas scenery, along with Ray Benson and Asleep at the Wheel.

I could listen to them all day...

Texas Bluebonnet Trail

Like I mentioned previously, on Monday my wife and I spent the day touring one of the Texas Bluebonnet Trails. Turns out Randy did the same thing. His pictures came out better than mine, so drop by over there for a look.

Anyway, here's a few of the shots I took. (ETA - click on the pix for a larger version - much sharper, more color, and more detail.)

The first two are of a hillside running along an old country road. The split rail fence adds a nice touch.

The next two show the effects of the long-term drought we're still experiencing here in Central Texas. The first one shows a dock sitting high and dry, with wildflowers and other plants taking over the exposed lakebed.

The one below shows how much the lake has shrunk as a result of the drought. This is Lake Buchanan, one of the larger lakes in this part of the country. The shot was taken from what used to be the shoreline. If you look at the very top of the horizon you can see the current water level. It is about 25 feet below normal. The lake is 37% full. Put another way, it is 63% empty. We've gotten enough rain lately to hold things steady, but we need sustained heavy rains to refill the lakes around here.

The area around Lake Buchanan is characterized by numerous granite domes and outcroppings. Here's one, with a carpet of bluebonnets below it.

Another sign of spring in the Hill Country is yuccas in bloom. Here's a nice batch. (Yucca is not just decorative. It also has many uses, including but not limited to food, fiber, and soap.)

And here's a long-distance shot showing blooming yuccas dotting a hillside (the white dots are the yucca plants).

This country has its own character. It can be both beautiful and harsh at the same time (kind of like my second ex-wife). Here's an example. Note the cactus and bones at the base of the flowering yucca.

Another example: a lovely butterfly that committed suicide by flying into my truck's brushguard.

Finally, a close-up of bluebonnets and Indian paintbrush, peacefully co-existing. People could learn a lot from flowers...

A Day Late And A Dollar Short

It's been a little hectic around here lately - so hectic that I totally missed National Beer Day.

Yes, Tuesday 7 April was National Beer Day, "an unofficial holiday in the United States celebrated every year on April 7th" which just happens to be the day that Prohibition ended.

In honor of that day, here's a few interesting beer tidbits.

Egypt was likely the first civilization to tax beer. Queen Cleopatra imposed a tax on beer in order, she claimed, to discourage public drunkenness, though it is widely believed that the tax was actually used to raise money to fund war with Rome.

Beer is the most popular alcoholic beverage in the United States. As a country, we consume 205.8 million barrels per year, or about 20 gallons per person per year. In 2012, the federal government collected $9.7 billion in revenue from excise taxes on distilled spirits, beer, and wine.

In 1695, Great Britain raised taxes on beer, making gin the cheapest beverage in England.

In the United States, taxes on the production, distribution and sale eat up 40% of the retail price of beer.

German beers are often labeled “Gebraut nach dem Bayerischen Reinheitsgebot von 1516″ which translates roughly to “brewed according to the Bavarian Purity Law of 1516.” The law originally limited the ingredients which can be used to make beer in Germany (barley malt, hops, yeast and water) and allowed the government to tax beer.

To help pay for the Civil War, Congress imposed an excise tax on beer.

Arthur Guinness II – the father of Guinness stout – altered the family beer recipe to include unmalted roasted barley instead of black malt. The unmalted barley wasn’t subject to tax ... it also made the beer’s taste distinctive. By the end of the 19th century, Guinness was the largest brewery in Europe.

The first beer cans were produced in 1935. The great United States/Canadian beer can war, however, started nearly 60 years later in 1992, when Ontario announced an “environmental tax” of 10% per aluminum beer can. At the time, United States brewers sold most of their beer in cans, while Canadian brewers bottled most (80%) of their beer. Ontario claimed that the tax wasn’t meant to target United States brewers although the tax did not apply to aluminum soft drink cans. In response, the United States imposed a $3 per case tax on beer imported from Ontario. Ontario fired back with a $3 per case tax on beer imported from Stroh and Heileman breweries which were, at the time, the two largest United States exporters of beer into Ontario.

In 1991, former President George H.W. Bush signed a bill which raised taxes on luxuries such as furs, yachts, private jets, jewelry and expensive cars (yes, despite the “no new taxes” pledge) – that same bill nearly doubled the tax on beer.

The most expensive state to buy a beer may well be Tennessee where state excise taxes reach $1.29 per gallon. The cheapest state to buy a beer? Wyoming with an excise tax of just .02 per gallon.

At the North America Wife Carrying Championship, first prize is the wife’s weight in beer... In the United States, prizes – even paid in beer – are taxable for federal income tax purposes.

The oldest operating brewing company in the U.S. is D.G. Yuengling & Son ... based in Pottsville, PA.

Cenosillicaphobia is the fear of an empty beer glass. Don’t suffer any more. Go, get a beer.

Placeholder

Kinda busy for the next day or so. Here's something to keep you interested until I can put up a real post.

Lost Puppy!

Please help us find this lost little dog. He answers to the name of Dick.

Bluebonnets Rule!

Yesterday I took a day off from being retired (hah! - it's good to be retired). My wife and I cruised the Texas Bluebonnet Trail. More commentary and pictures to follow, but here's a preview of coming attractions.

Pumped Up!!!

Just watched the U.S. Army band - trumpets and drums - play the National Anthem before the NCAA championship basketball game, accompanied by an eagle soaring around the arena.  God Damn did that get me pumped up. I wanna grab an M-16 and run around shooting terrorists.

USA! USA! USA!

FOD 2015.04.06

Today's post is a lengthy one. It discusses a topic that in my opinion is the most crucial issue facing the world today - the threat of a nuclear-armed Iran. There is a fair amount of detail, so if you're in a rush just scroll down to the Big Picture heading. Otherwise, pour yourself a fresh cup of coffee, settle back in your chair, and begin.

There has been much angst lately about barack chamberlain obama capitulating to the Iranians on the latest nuclear negotiations, to the point where even the French are saying the U.S. "caved in to Iranian demands."

When the French accuse you of appeasement, that should be a clear sign you've gone to far.

However, this isn't anything new for obama. He began sucking up to Iran even before he was elected.

July 2007: No preconditions

During a July 23, 2007, debate for the Democratic presidential nomination (the candidates were asked) if they would be willing to meet, without precondition, within the first year of their administration, with the leaders of Iran, Syria, North Korea, Cuba and Venezuela. "I would," Obama said... He went on to say, "I think it is a disgrace that we have not spoken to them" vowing that with regards to Iraq, "One of the first things that I would do in terms of moving a diplomatic effort in the region forward, is to send a signal that we're going to talk to Iran and Syria."

January 2009: Extending the hand

Obama used the occasion of his first Inaugural Address on Jan. 20, 2009, to extend an olive branch to Iran...

A week later... In his first formal sit down interview as president – with Arab television network Al Arabiya – Obama was asked how far he'd be willing to go to prevent a nuclear Iran.

... He acknowledged Iran had a record of threatening Israel, sponsoring terrorism, and pursuing nuclear weapons. "But," he added, "I do think that it is important for us to be willing to talk to Iran

March 2009: "The Islamic Republic of Iran"

In the first of his annual messages on Nowruz, the Persian New Year, Obama addressed the Iranian people as well as the "leaders of the Islamic Republic of Iran." By referring to the "Islamic Republic" he immediately added legitimacy to the anti-American regime.

June 2009: The Green Revolution

On June 12, Iran held its tightly-controlled elections, and after Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was declared the winner, massive democratic protests broke out against the regime. Rather than support the dissidents in the face of a brutal crackdown by the Islamic nation, Obama was initially silent before offering a tepid response days later.

2009 — Present: Letters to the Ayatollah

During his presidency, Obama has become pen pals with Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. This despite the fact that Khamenei continues to back terrorism, has called for "Death to America" and declared that Israel is a "cancerous tumor that should be cut and will be cut" within the context of seeking nuclear weapons.

The letters to Khamenei are just one part of Obama's outreach effort. In September 2013, Obama spoke on the phone with new Iranian President Hassan Rouhani – representing the highest-level contact between the U.S. and Iran since the Carter administration cut off ties with the regime in 1980.

2009 — 2011: Resisting tougher sanctions

At many points when it has suited his political interests, Obama has boasted of having ratcheted up sanctions against Iran in his first term. Though it's accurate that more sanctions were imposed, the important context is that Obama continually fought back Congress in an attempt to weaken sanctions...

2013 — Present: Nuclear concessions mount

On Nov. 24, 2013, the Obama administration announced an "interim agreement" with Iran that provided immediate sanctions relief in exchange for concessions on its nuclear program. The agreement was supposed to last six months, but has since been extended multiple times. And as time goes on, the U.S. moves closer and closer to the Iranian position.

The negotiations had been pitched as a way to make sure Iran "doesn't have the capacity to develop a nuclear weapon," but now, the stated goal is to make sure that the U.S. can tell when Iran is a year away from a nuclear weapon – and the hope of reaching even that lower bar appears to be fading. (emphasis added)

Note the change - from prevention to detection. Bad move. It's a lot easier to prevent a fire than it is to put one out after it has started. And what do you think obama will do if he gets word that Iran is close to completing a nuke? Based on his past performance, I'd say he'll play another round of golf.

More boring, but critical, details follow.

Initially, the U.S. denied that the interim agreement recognized Iran's right to enrich uranium, but Secretary of State John Kerry later sang a different tune. There has also been a clear shift in the number of centrifuges Iran will be allowed to operate... By September 2014, the U.S. was saying that the goal was to limit the number of centrifuges to 1,500. The latest reports are that Iran will be allowed to keep around 6,000 centrifuges – which will make it a lot harder to limit Iran's so-called breakout time to obtaining a nuclear weapon to a year.

An April 2012 New York Times report revealed that the Obama administration and its European allies were "demanding the immediate closing and ultimate dismantling" of Fordo, a nuclear facility built deep under a mountain. But the Associated Press reported last month that under the current deal, the facility would remain operational.

Note that destroying Fordo by non-nuclear weapons is not a sure thing, despite development of a new and improved MOP (Massive Ordnance Penetrator).

On top of all of these concessions, the emerging deal would allow Iran to maintain its plutonium pathway to a nuclear weapon and it hasn't addressed its ballistic missile program...

Ongoing: Realigning U.S. Middle East policy toward Iran

As the Obama administration engages in nuclear diplomacy, it has shifted its broader foreign policy in the Middle East so that it's closer to Iran... Recently, Kerry said the U.S. might have to negotiate with Syrian dictator Bashar Assad, an ally of the Iranian regime. The U.S. has tolerated a growing role for Iran in Iraq. The administration has had a tepid response to the takeover of Yemen — once hailed as a model of counterterrorism — by Iran-backed Shiite Houthi rebels. Obama has also taken an increasingly belligerent attitude toward Israel.

That's the context. It shows an early and sustained movement by the obama administration away from traditional allies towards an oppressive and extremist regime. As for the new agreement, all you need to know about it is the reaction in the streets of Iran.

From social media to the streets, Iranians erupt with joy after nuclear deal

By the elation online and in the streets, you'd think Iran had just won the World Cup. But this is bigger.

Iranians erupted in celebration as young people waved flags from their sunroofs, blasted music from stereos and chatted online with the hashtag #IranTalks.

The excitement came after a breakthrough nuclear deal with the United States and other world powers...

The perception here at home? Lower and lower expectations, that will still go unmet.

Whatever else the Obama administration accomplished in the Iran nuclear framework, it did a good job keeping the bar of expectations low...

Tehran can be expected to use every ambiguity in the agreement to its advantage as goals are converted into the language of a final deal. Disagreements are already emerging between the Obama administration and the Iranians on how and when sanctions will be lifted in exchange for compliance, with Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif essentially accusing the White House of deception.

Given the months of hard negotiations ahead, the self-congratulatory tone of President Obama’s speech announcing the agreement was extremely premature...

A number of issues seem murky. What becomes of all the fissile material Iran has apparently agreed to export? What is done with the decommissioned centrifuges and infrastructure to make sure they can’t be easily reinstalled during a breakout attempt? What is the pace and ordering of sanctions relief by the United States, the European Union and the United Nations? How fully will Iran be required to account for past military dimensions of its nuclear programs?

But the largest question will not be answered by the next stage of nuclear negotiations. Will this agreement give the Iranian regime cover for what it is currently doing in the Middle East — actively spreading its influence and threatening our allies? Negotiations on the nuclear issue have taken place in isolation from the ballistic missile issue, the terrorism issue and the regional destabilization issue.  (emphasis added)

Another thing to keep in mind is that this is not a done deal. The agreement is just a framework of general points that need to be resolved before finalizing the treaty. Below is a 'Fact Sheet' outlining the key parameters that need to be resolved before final implementation.

Centrifuges/Enrichment

... Iran now has some 10,000 spinning centrifuges out of a total of 19,000 installed, and previously had insisted on keeping them all. For years the US insisted that Iran give them all up, then offered it keep a token 500.

The framework deal settles on 6,104 centrifuges installed...

Sanctions

Among the thorniest issues addressed this week by Iran and the P5+1 powers – the United States, Russia, Britain, France, Germany, and China – was the speed and pace of relief for Iran from a raft of United Nations, US, and European sanctions on its economy.

Iranian leaders have insisted that all sanctions be lifted “immediately” in any deal. But Western leaders, convinced that sanctions are what brought Iran to the negotiating table – an assertion Iran rejects – are reluctant to give up too much too soon.

According to a joint Iran/EU statement, the EU will “terminate” all nuclear-related economic and financial sanctions – which include an oil embargo – and the US will “cease the application” of nuclear-related sanctions “simultaneously,” when the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the UN’s nuclear watchdog, verifies Iran’s steps.

Already different interpretations are emerging...

Research & Development

Iran says it can’t forever use only 1970s technology – the vintage of its problem-prone IR-1 centrifuge – and wants to develop more efficient models up to the IR-8.

The deal enables Iran to continue limited research on all its most sophisticated centrifuge models, according to parameters agreed with the P5+1, but not to enrich uranium with them for 10 years.

“We will continue researching,” Zarif said of the deal. Advanced centrifuge work would be done “on a scheduled basis that is commensurate with our own scientific requirements.”

Stockpiles of enriched uranium

The most pressing stockpile issue was dealt with under the 2013 Geneva deal, which required Iran to dilute or turn into nuclear fuel its 200 kilograms (440 lbs) of uranium enriched to 20 percent – a level a few technical steps away from weapons-grade 90 percent.

And yet Iran has also accumulated 10,000 kg of low-enriched uranium purified to 5 percent, which is suitable for nuclear fuel, but also can be a shortcut to any “breakout” scenario.

Nuclear Facilities/Inspections

Compromises have also been reached on two issues that overshadowed earlier stages of talks. One is Fordow, a fortified facility buried deep in a mountain. In early 2012, the P5+1 demanded that Iran stop 20 percent enrichment there, shut the facility, and export all that enriched material – a policy shorthanded by diplomats as “stop, shut, ship.”

The deals states that Fordow is to be converted into a research center expected to work on medical isotopes that have no military application. Uranium enrichment and the presence of fissile material will be forbidden for 15 years, though 1,000 centrifuges will remain in place.

Likewise, Iran’s still-unfinished heavy water reactor at Arak is to be modified so that its core yields no plutonium – another possible pathway to a weapon. Iran has agreed to never build a processing facility necessary to make any plutonium weapons-usable.

Iran’s compliance with any final deal is to be monitored by more intrusive inspections by the IAEA. Iran is already the nation most heavily monitored by the IAEA, but Iran would accept the Additional Protocol – permanently enabling no notice, anywhere inspections.

Inspectors are to monitor Iran’s centrifuge rotor and bellows production for 20 years, and Iran’s uranium mines and mills for 25 years.

Big Picture

Note that this whole deal hinges on comprehensive and unhindered inspections. Given Iran's past behavior, that is doubtful. It also doesn't prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, but merely puts things on hold for 10-20 years.

Finally, note the Fatal Flaw in this whole thing.

Iran’s “breakout time” – the period it would take to acquire enough nuclear material for a single atomic bomb – is currently estimated at 2-3 months.

This preliminary framework for a final agreement is not expected to be completed until 30 June, 2015 - that is, 3 months from now.

In other words, Iran could have everything they need for a working nuke secreted away in a secure, unknown site before the first inspection under the new agreement.

Furthermore, the new agreement does nothing to address Iran's ballistic missile program - the delivery mechanism. It also does nothing to deter other countries in the region from developing their own nukes.

And obama things this is a win for our side?

God help us all.

P.S. - under the heading of Unintended Consequences', the deal with Iran injects an additional degree of uncertainty into the global oil market. Successful completion of the agreement will result in a return of Iranian crude to the market, putting downward pressure on the price of oil. While that may make motorists happy, it will also weaken the energy sector of the economy, threatening jobs and reducing tax revenue. Wells are already shutting down in South Texas and North Dakota. Oil field supply and service companies have already laid off thousands of workers, and producers are following suit. If the deal goes through, expect more of the same next year when Iranian wells come online.

Sunday Funnies 2015.04.05

Have a Happy -- and Blessed -- Easter!

Q: What do Easter Bunny helpers get for making a basket?
A: Two points, just like anyone else.

Q: Why does the Easter Bunny hide Easter eggs?
A: He doesn't want anyone knowing he's been screwing chickens.

After the big egg hunt on Easter Sunday, a farm boy decided to play a little prank on all of the chickens. He went into the chicken coop and replaced every single brown egg with a brightly colored one from his Easter basket.

A few minutes later the rooster walked in and saw all of the colored eggs. He let out an outraged "Squawk" and then stormed outside and killed the peacock.

Fluffy, the young Easter orphan bunny and Cedric the orphan snake lived in the forest; they were, by an amazing coincidence, both blind from birth.

One morning, bright and early Fluffy was hopping through the forest when he tripped over the body of Cedric who was basking in the sunlit undergrowth. Fluffy landed quite hard on the prostrate body of Cedric.

'Crikey,' exclaimed Fluffy the bunny, 'I'm so sorry. I didn't mean to squash you. I've been blind since birth, so, I can't see where I'm going. In fact, since I'm also an orphan, I don't even know what creature I am.'

'That's OK, mate,' commented Cedric the snake. 'Actually my story is much the same as yours. I, too, have been blind since birth and also never knew my mother. Tell you what, maybe I could slither all over you and work out what you are, so at least you'll be able to find that out.'

'What a marvelous idea,' replied Fluffy the bunny.

So the Cedric slithered all over Fluffy and said, 'Well, you're covered with soft fur, you have really long ears, your nose twitches and you have a soft cottony tail. I'd say that you must be a bunny rabbit.'

'Oh, thank you, thank you,' cried Fluffy with tremendous pleasure. Then Fluffy the bunny suggested to the snake, 'Perhaps I could be allowed to feel you all over with my paw and help you the same way that you've helped me.'

So Fluffy the bunny felt Cedric the snake all over and summarized, 'Well, you're smooth and slippery, you have a forked tongue and no backbone.  I'd say you must be a politician.'

Getting Ready For Easter

Normal families are Easter-prepping by dying eggs, filling Easter baskets, baking hams, and the like.

Here at Bergheim Follies we get ready for Easter a little differently.



And it shows the day after...

Friday Follies Happy Hour 2015. 04.03

For Bots:

Common Detonator

I got back home last night and spent a few minutes catching up on the news. I'm sorry I did so. It was depressing as hell.

All these headlines were from one day - Thursday, 2 April.

147 dead, Islamist gunmen killed after attack at Kenya college

"...gunmen burst into a Christian service. Taking hostages from the service, they then "proceeded to the hostels, shooting anybody they came across except their fellows, the Muslims."

The attackers separated students by religion, allowing Muslims to leave..."

Al Qaeda frees 300 inmates from Yemeni jail, including militants

Al Qaeda militants in Yemen stormed the center of the coastal city of al-Mukalla early Thursday, freeing about 300 inmates, including scores of militants...

Suicide blast kills at least 13 in east Afghanistan

A suicide bomber on Thursday killed at least 13 people and wounded around 40 others...

19 people killed in Egypt's Sinai attacks

At least 15 military men and four civilians were killed in simultaneous armed attacks on checkpoints in Egypt's Sinai Peninsula on Thursday...

Okay, class, what's the common thread tying all those tragedies together?

That's right - militant islam.

Against this backdrop, obama reached an agreement with the biggest sponsor of islamic terrorism in the world.

Obama: Historic deal reached on Iran nuclear program

US President Barack Obama called the preliminary agreement reached in Switzerland a “historic understanding” that would prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons...

Isn't that what he said a few years ago about sanctions?

Oh, wait, here's the spin.

The “toughest sanctions in history," did have a “profound effect on Iran's economy” and helped bring Tehran to the negotiating table, (obama) said.

Keep in mind that while the deal was being negotiated the Supreme Leader of Iran said, and continued to say, “death to America.”

Those 'people' simply cannot be trusted. I only hope that at some point in the not too distant future we don't look back on this agreement and rue the day when barry sold us down the river.

A Good Time Was Had By All

Yesterday's service for my friend was very well done. Many family and friends showed up, the preacher did a bang-up job, and all went well.

As part of this particular service, a couple of family members spoke briefly during the "Words of Thanksgiving and Remembrance" portion of the ceremony. I was honored to say a few words on behalf of his friends. I won't bore you with the details, but suffice it to say that this was probably the first time the words "bull scrotum" were spoken from the pulpit in that church.

The reception afterwards served as a nice warmup for the subsequent afterparty. Our buddy was sent off in a style befitting him.

RIP, Bots...

Not An April Fools Day Joke

I'm in Chicago for the funeral of a good friend. As he would have appreciated, the affair is turning into a multi day party. Last night was the preparty. Today is the memorial service, followed by a reception, followed by the after party party. Tomorrow is the say-goodbye-to-everyone party.

That explains why posts for the next few days may be sketchy, incoherent, nonexistent, or a combination of all three.

Assuming I survive, things should be more or less back to normal by this weekend.

Stay tuned...