Bad News or Good?

Taking pleasure in the misery of others. The Germans have a word for it: Schadenfreude.

I'm not taking pleasure in the misery of those who are unemployed, underemployed, or have lost their homes due to obama and the dem's bungling of the economy. But viewed dispassionately, there is a silver lining in the gloomy economic clouds.

How the economy could break Obama

Is President Obama moving closer to a one-term presidency with every disappointing economic datapoint, unemployment report and stock market stumble?

We can only hope that there's change in 2012.

Democrats of course hope that isn't the case, but political scientists say that in almost every election, the economy does indeed turn out to be issue No. 1.

Right now, that's just flat out bad news for Obama.

On Friday, a government jobs report indicated that only 54,000 jobs were added last month and the unemployment rate rose to 9.1% -- troubling signs that the recovery is wavering.

And it's not just jobs. Manufacturing growth is slowing both in the United States and abroad. Home prices are in a confirmed double-dip. Consumer confidence is declining.

To top it off, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has dropped almost 5% in the past month.

It's a trend that should be setting off alarm bells at Obama's 2012 campaign headquarters.

"There is a close connection between the economic data that comes out and how people feel. If bad numbers keep coming out, that is going to translate to voters," said Randy Stevenson, a professor at Rice University who studies the relationship between economic conditions and electoral politics.

Voters are already making the connection.

Obama's overall approval rating has edged up in CNN polling, thanks to his performance on international issues and national security.

What?!? He gets lucky on the osama execution and throws Israel under the bus, and his approval rating goes up? WTF? But I digress.

But the number of Americans who approve of his handling of the economy is stuck at a dismal level -- only 41%.

And in May, only 39% of Americans said they think things are going well in the country -- another crucial polling test.

An election victory will require more. In the four instances since 1976 where the incumbent party retained the White House, an average 67% of Americans said things were going well in the month before they went to the polls.

I don't see things getting much better by Nov. 2012. To improve things would require obama and the dems to take actions that they have historically and consistently opposed. Just to give one example, encouraging more domestic oil and natural gas production would:

• increase employment (directly by creating jobs in the energy sector, indirectly by creating demand for support services and products, consumer staples such as food and shelter for the workers, clothes, entertainment, and so forth);
• decrease energy prices (more supply = lower cost); and
• create a ripple effect of more dollars being spent on goods and services while at the same time decreasing the cost of consumer goods (the savings on transportation costs due to lower gas prices alone would bring down the cost of just about everything).

But to do so would require ending the moratorium on drilling in the Gulf, opening up ANWR, and allowing the construction of more pipelines and refineries. The obama administration has actively opposed all of these.

In short, things aren't looking good for obama and the dems in 2012. But never underestimate the ability of the repubs to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory...