Thursday, January 28, 2016

Demographics Is Destiny

In this morning's post I mentioned something about the republicans swimming upstream now because of demographics. Let's explore that in a little more detail.
The reality is that Republicans have an Electoral College problem and a demographic problem.

In 1988, George Herbert Walker Bush won the same percentage of white voters and minority voters as Romney did in 2012. But Bush won nationally by almost 8%, while Romney lost by 4%. That is how rapidly America is changing. The white share of the vote, where Republicans won in 2012 by 20%, has declined from 85% to 72% of all voters. Minority voters, who have grown from 15% to 28%, favored Obama by 67%. In 2016, the white share of the vote may decline to 70%. Democrats are already busily registering minority group members to vote this year. Republicans will need to expand their vote share among whites and minorities to win in 2016.

For a Republican to get to 270 electoral college votes, he needs to win all the Romney states which produced 206 Electoral College votes (only North Carolina, with 15 votes, was a close race). He also needs to win a bunch of states that have been voting for Democrats more often than Republicans in recent cycles: Florida (29), Ohio (18), Virginia (13), Colorado (9), Iowa (6), New Hampshire (4), Pennsylvania (20), Nevada (6), and Wisconsin (10) among them.
I am not optimistic. Even if the democrat choice is between a washed-up bitter old hag whose only accomplishments are dodging multiple indictments, and a washed-up bitter old socialist who reminds me of a crazy and perverted uncle...

... there are more of them than there are of us. That's not a good thing, especially when 'they' are lured by promises of free things.

Of course, 'we' have our own faults.
The conservative base is not growing as a share of the electorate... Many in the conservative base at times seem to be happiest to win the civil war and to take down the GOP establishment, regarding a general election loss as less important. Somehow a 0% conservative (a Democrat) is better than a 60%-70% model (a moderate Republican, the only type who can win in some districts or states).

Victories in midterm elections are not a guide to presidential election years, when minority vote share is far higher. Republican governors were elected in Illinois, Maryland, and Massachusetts in 2014. The GOP nominee will be lucky to lose by only 15 points in these states in 2016.

The Republicans could get lucky -- Hillary Clinton could be indicted, or the attorney general could refuse to move forward with an FBI recommendation for an indictment, leading FBI Director Comey to resign or be fired. The resulting Nixonian stench could badly undercut Clinton, who will never willingly give up her pursuit of the White House unless imprisoned. Even a Republican with little appeal beyond the base might win against such a badly damaged opponent. For those who think winning the White House is the real goal, that seems like little more than hope and a prayer, not a strategy...
I'm afraid we're doomed.


Steve D said...

'I'm afraid we're doomed.'

I think politics is cyclical and it is very unlikely the democrats will win since they are on the downturn of their cycle and Republicans are on the upsurge, having one the majority of public offices over the last four year.

The Republican's will try their best to screw it up (e.g. nominate Trump) but their turn has come and there is nothing they can do about it.

However, if a good candidate like Cruz or Rubio gets the nod, it could be a landslide.

We'll see.

CenTexTim said...

Steve, I hope and pray you are right...