Wednesday, May 2, 2012

Guns And Votes

Brownells is a third-generation supplier of firearms tools, parts, and service. They are located smack dab in the middle of flyover country - Des Moines, Iowa. But, like many of the people between the coasts that are mocked by the cultural elite in New York and California, they posses an abundance of ingenuity and common sense.

Brownells publishes a monthly newsletter that discusses trends and events in the firearms industry, and occasionally ventures into political commentary as well. The April newsletter makes some particularly salient points.
First, this year is the most successful start of a year for the industry, ever. From all accords, it beats the 2008 build-up to Obama’s election. Frankly, we believe the possibility of a second Obama term is driving a large portion of this bump; however, we have observed the largest entrance of new shooters through the conceal carry market we have ever seen. So this increase is really much more than a political bubble, it is what we are calling a “conceal carry surge”.
This surge is driven in part by the success of the NRA and other pro-firearms organizations in getting concealed-carry legislation passed in many states. The affirmation by the Supreme Court that the Second Amendment is an individual right (District of Columbia v. Heller, 2008) also plays a key role.
There are some very significant nuances of this – some pretty far reaching. For instance, people are realizing with the ever-tightening restrictions of law enforcement funding, they are even more responsible for protecting themselves and their families.
This is supported not just by skyrocketing sales, but by jumps in both first-time gun owners and large enrollment increases for concealed-carry and self-defense classes.
Also, note the stock prices of the publicly-traded firearm companies are up significantly. Smith and Wesson has surged 83.5% since January, and Ruger stock has increased 60%.
Firearms companies as investment opportunities - at least obama has stimulated that sector of the economy.
One of the really big happenings in our industry right now is that the ammo for the very popular calibers − .223, .40, 9mm, .38 and .380 – is becoming more and more scarce. Lead times from the factories are extending out to 3rd and 4th quarter, even into 1st quarter 2013, and the “pipeline” from the factory to the retail store is drying up. What this means is every person who is interested in having these calibers to shoot over the summer appears to be buying as much as possible right now, when they can find it, for fear it will not be available or prices will increase to the point of being ludicrous. Our guys who attended the recent Tulsa Gun Show told us pallets of .223 ammo were disappearing within a day. This bump looks like it will be just like, if not greater than, the 2008 ammunition bump. We also get reports that it is very hard to have AR-15 rifles in stock and the smaller conceal carry firearms are moving in huge volumes this first quarter. We expect that pattern to continue throughout the summer if not all the way to the end of the year.
If you've bought ammo lately you've probably noticed both the scarcity and the price. I can still usually get the ammo I want, but the price has definitely gotten my attention.
The second take-away from the NRA Show and one that is more political in nature than the industry performance is how close the election is going to be this year between President Obama and Governor Romney. There will not be a clear front-runner in the presidential race; it is going to be right down to the very last state ... It is going to come down to voter turnout this year and the candidate who turns out the most voters will win – as it always has been. What we find disturbing is what appears to be a trend of significant numbers of pro-gun citizens who do not vote. We don't know why and we don't understand it.
I don't get it either, but this is definitely not the year to sit out the election. The other side is going to vote early and often, and enlist the aid of illegal immigrants and dead people ("When I die, bury me in Chicago, because I want to remain politically active"). The best way to counter that is to not only vote yourself, but to get friends and family registered and motivated to vote as well.
Many of the past presidential and local political races have been determined by 1 -2% of the voting population. Now more than any other time in history, a single vote can have a larger impact in determining the winner of these races on Election Day, Tuesday, November 6, 2012.
A couple of key points there. First is the razor-thin margins of recent elections - not just national, but state and local. Every vote literally counts. Second is the critical nature of state and local races. Remember 2010, when conservatives lead the republican surge that took back the House. If conservatives can maintain their clout in the House, and maybe even influence a few Senate races, that will accomplish a couple of things. If obama wins it will provide a more meaningful counterweight to his 'rule by executive fiat and regulatory mandate' tyranny. If Romney wins, a sizable conservative presence in congress will serve as a constant reminder of who is responsible for getting him elected. It will help nudge him right of center, which is where he needs to be.

I get that Romney doesn't excite many conservatives. But the alternative is unthinkable. If we elect enough conservatives at the state and local levels then we'll start to turn this ship around, get the train back on the tracks, and hit the road towards recovery.

I realize that's a terribly mixed metaphor, but you get the idea, right...?



10 comments:

Pascvaks said...

Why, with so many Americans out of work, and a number of other 'variables' like product demand, haven't we seen a major effort to build more ammo factories in this country to reduce the order-ship times? I smell a rat in ammo production, a Federal regulatory rat, a rat that smells like a Chicago Hot Dog with Hawaiian Pineapple Mustard, a rat that says "EPA! EPA! EPA!" and "DOJ! DOJ! DOJ!". Hummmmmm... I wonder, do you think obummer has anything to do with this? Maybe?

Old NFO said...

Brownells is working hard to meet demand (I had that chat at NRA with Frank), the real issue is balance of production capability with demand (it ALL comes back to S&D). Since the military (and now DHS) are still ordering large quantities of ammo, there is still a shortage of large and small primers, and most manufacturers have gone to 3 shifts. BUT, they are not added capability, because the war is winding down, and probably within a year, ammo orders will significantly wind down from the military (freeing up primers, etc).

Pascvaks said...

@OldNFO-
Are you saying that the Gov't (Obummer&Co) are "RESTRICTING" the supply to Americans of ammo by buying ammo in heaps and trainloads with taxpayer money? Who's at war with who? I thought the Constitution said 'We The People' came first? This is a revolting development, as Reiley (William Bendix) would say in "The Life of..- and it ain't Kosher or fair neither. Besides, I thought the Gubment made it's own ammo at things called Arsenals spotted around the country so one Nuc doesn't get them all. Nope! Can't buy it OldNFO! This smells like the Feds is buying ammo off the private sector to make sure the privates like you and me don't have much at home under the mattress. This is 1984 all over again in my book.

Pascvaks said...

PS: (a late breaking thought)

The competition makes us the people we are. How do you beat the Third Reich, The Japanese Empire, the Evil Empire, et all? And I do mean beat them, as in stomp the life out of them. You become bigger, badder, meaner, and more ruthless than they are. Do you think that maybe, just maybe, in the past hundred years, the US Gubment has forgotten a lot of the basics of what life, liberty, and the persuit of happiness is all about? And maybe, just maybe, they now think that "We The People" doesn't apply to the pee'ons anymore, but to them the masters what's calling the shots? We beat the Nazis and Japs and Commies by becoming bigger, and badder and tougher than they ever could, didn't we? Just a thought. Maybe we're all a little out of touch with who and what we were a long time ago, in a land far, far away.

CenTexTim said...

Pascvaks - I'm with NFO on this one. There's no point for manufacturers to build new facilities when from all appearances it looks like there is a demand bubble. Once the demand curve stabilizes the manufacturers would be stuck with more production capacity then needed.

Pascvaks said...

Yes, he's correct about that, I agree. And, if the NRA isn't jumping up and down over the ammo production matter I'll hush-up about it. But just look how friggin easy it is for Old Big Bro n' Sis to go over the line, or move the line; and about the other matters I mentioned, got a feeling I'm closer to right than wrong. We have been at war for a hundred years, most think we still are, and --for the sake of "security"-- we've been throwing the baby out with the bath water and giving away the family gewels (a'la Texas et al in 1863 --certainly NOT the other kind;-). Oh well, times change, people change, nothing lasts long anyway.

Pascvaks said...

It's not 'gewels' is it? Talking about those twinkely things the girls like to wear to parties and make each other green.

Old NFO said...

Pascvaks, it's all about the supply of pieces/parts... Commercial and "Arsenal" manufacturers get their primers, etc. from the same commercial sources...

Pascvaks said...

You mean we buy arsenal parts from the chinese too. Is there anything we can still do for ourselves? When they (the chinese, of course) make this one into a movie, I wonder, who they'll cast as the biggest fools at 1600 Penn. Ave. and, of course as well, the People's Greatest Heros at the NEA. Some Revolutions are pretty slow and quiet, always thought there was a lot of noise and fighting. Who knew, chinese primers. Damn!

CenTexTim said...

To me the really scary hing is that we get a lot of critical electronic and computer-related components from China. I know they're tested and all that good stuff, but those chicoms are wily. I don't trust 'em one damn bit.