Am I Way Off Base?

It's still a year and a half to the 2012 presidential election, and I'm just about ready to concede it to obama.

It damn sure isn't because of his record. In just about any other election the worst president ever would be ripe for the taking. But the republicans seem unable to find anyone who stands a snowball's chance in hell of winning.

The Republicans may have the keys to victory in 2012 in their grasp, but it's a question of getting the horses out of the barn, onto the track and into the race.

So far, the Republican presidential field is awful. It's no wonder President Barack Obama is smiling. And it's not just getting bin Laden that has him grinning. The economy is starting to recover. And the Republicans resemble “The Gang That Couldn't Shoot Straight.”

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and billionaire real estate developer-turned-reality TV star Donald Trump have both said they're out. Huckabee and Trump had shown more promise in the polls than some of the other names running or considering a run.

So, who will fill the void?

There is Mitt Romney - already lost. Newt Gingrich - not happening. Sarah Palin - please, get serious. There is Ron Paul, a man with great ideas about how to solve our problems, but serious questions about electability. Then there's Tim Pawlenty and Michele Bachmann, both with potential to score big with evangelicals, but neither seem to be scoring points with the rest of the electorate.

That brings us to Mitch Daniels, the governor of Indiana, who almost everyone agrees would be a formidable challenger to Obama. And New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie. Christie says he's not "ready to run for president," despite the fact that Republicans all over the country are begging him to get in the race. And Daniels, who says he hasn't made up his mind yet. Daniels also says he could beat Obama…and he might be right.

It's pretty much a lead-pipe cinch the rest of the Republicans mentioned can't, except maybe for Christie.

Which brings us, however reluctantly, to Rick Perry.

As many grass-roots Republicans remain in search of a conservative candidate with the pizazz to go toe-to-toe against President Obama, a man from deep in the heart of Texas who was tea party before the tea party was cool appears to be giving the presidential race some thought.

A Texas pol who is close to Perry has been telling a few key strategists that the nation's longest-serving governor sees a vacuum and is waiting to be summoned into the race. This source believes that could happen by late summer. Without fellow Southerners Haley Barbour or Mike Huckabee in the race -- and with Newt Gingrich's early troubles raising further doubts about the current lineup -- there could be a glaring niche for Perry to fill.

According to another well-connected Republican, at least one Perry confidant has been very quietly making inquiries about the political terrain in the nation's first voting state of Iowa. A third Perry associate, RCP has learned, has been heralding a small contingent of Iowans with the time-tested line that is often used by would-be candidates who are leaving their options open: "Keep your powder dry."

Perry's presidential prospects may ultimately be contingent on the decision made by the only GOP White House hopeful who can boast a resume and home state that is large enough to mess with Texas: former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin. Perry shares Palin's dexterity with the simple, tough-talking language that tends to fire up the tea party faithful and is similarly adept at connecting on a human level that comes across as decidedly anti-politician, despite his more than a decade in the governor's mansion.

Palin endorsed Perry in his contentious primary against Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison early last year, and they are both larger-than-life figures to the tea party rank and file. In other words, the race might not be big enough to hold both a Texas cowboy and a certain Mama Grizzly from the 49th state.

As Palin relies on her unrivaled star power and intensity of support to afford her the luxury of waiting to see how the field develops, Perry cannot remain idle quite as long, particularly in putting himself in a position to begin raising money in a timely enough fashion to run a national primary campaign that starts early in the new year.

Perry remains well known to the Republican base these days. In December 2009, his visage adorned the cover of the New York Times Magazine, and he showed last year by beating back Hutchison -- who enjoyed the backing of Bush administration allies, as well as former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney -- that the Rick Perry brand remains formidable.

He was a headliner at the Southern Republican Leadership Conference in New Orleans last April, and it was announced last week that he'll be reprising that appearance at this year's conference in June.

The event is a cattle call for 2012 GOP hopefuls, with Gingrich, Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman and businessman Herman Cain all confirmed to speak, along with Perry.

So IMO we are stuck with a choice between an ideologically pure (relatively speaking) candidate like Ron Paul or Sarah Palin, and a pragmatically electable candidate like ... well, I'm not really sure. At this point I'll vote for anyone over obama, and I hope enough other people will too.

But I'm not sure the country is ready yet to elect another governor from Texas...